Preparing For Trouble: Probable vs. Possible


I was listening to the latest episode of Bob Mayne‘s “Handgun World” podcast this morning on my way to the range. In this podcast, Bob talked to Jon Hodoway of Nighthawk Custom Training Academy about vehicle carry and every-day preparedness. Jon brought up a subject which I think bears talking about: What sorts of threats we prepare for.

In his talk with Bob, Jon drew a distinction between preparing for what’s possible and preparing for what’s probable. There are people who feel they need to carry six AR-15 rifles, a dozen handguns and enough food and water to resupply a small garrison in their vehicles because, hey, space aliens, zombies, and al Qaeda terrorists could attack simultaneously while a hurricane, tornado and earthquake are all happening. Could this happen? Anything’s possible, I suppose, but Jon made a good point: Lots of things that are technically possible aren’t likely, and so tailoring our tools, training and gear to these improbable events means two things.

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